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Tromsø II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Tromsø II
Tromsø II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
6/18/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 11Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tromsø II56%
×Draw20%
Funnefoss / Vormsund24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsø II
2.20
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.38

Tromsø II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tromsø II
2.39
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.31

allows per match

Tromsø II
1.45
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.00

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw
76%
Tromsø II or Funnefoss / Vormsund
80%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
44%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+
34%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals
89%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
64%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
37%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
75%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
40%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)
70%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.39 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.31 + Tromsø II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tromsø II scores more
56%
level
20%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
24%

Tromsø II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tromsø II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Tromsø II 2–1 Funnefoss / Vormsund

Tromsø II beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.