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Tromsø II vs Frigg — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Tromsø II
Tromsø II
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Frigg
Frigg
H. Bogdan 90'
C. Kleiva 54'
J. Nois 10'
U. Ferrer 58', 25'
M. A. Rogde 53'
P. Nomell 45'
S. Barane 39'
4/21/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 3Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tromsø II38%
×Draw20%
Frigg43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsø II
2.17
Frigg
2.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tromsø II
2.62
Frigg
2.94

allows per match

Tromsø II
1.69
Frigg
1.71

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par
Frigg+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Frigg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw
57%
Tromsø II or Frigg
80%
Draw or Frigg
62%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+
21%
Frigg wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals
89%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
64%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
36%
Frigg 1+ goals
90%
Frigg 2+ goals
67%
Frigg 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)
47%
Frigg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Frigg away — creates 2.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.62 + Frigg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

Frigg attack 2.94 + Tromsø II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tromsø II scores more
38%
level
20%
Frigg scores more
43%

Frigg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
J. Nois
25'
U. Ferrer
39'
S. Barane
45'
P. Nomell
53'
M. A. Rogde
54'
C. Kleiva
58'
U. Ferrer
90'
H. Bogdan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tromsø II vs Frigg

Frigg beat Tromsø II 5-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 21, 2025.

Goals: J. Nois (10'), U. Ferrer (25', 58'), S. Barane (39'), P. Nomell (45'), M. A. Rogde (53'), C. Kleiva (54'), H. Bogdan (90').

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.