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Frigg vs Tromsø II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Frigg
Frigg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Tromsø II
Tromsø II
A. L. Elvebu 88'
E. Jolle 56'
A. Evensen-Jensen 33'
8/9/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 15Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frigg60%
×Draw17%
Tromsø II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg
2.88
Tromsø II
1.76

Frigg creates 64% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frigg
3.85
Tromsø II
1.85

allows per match

Frigg
1.67
Tromsø II
1.92

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par
Tromsø II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Tromsø II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Frigg or draw
77%
Frigg or Tromsø II
83%
Draw or Tromsø II
40%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+
40%
Tromsø II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals
94%
Frigg 2+ goals
78%
Frigg 3+ goals
54%
Tromsø II 1+ goals
83%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
52%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)
73%
Tromsø II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

Tromsø II away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Tromsø II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.88

Tromsø II attack 1.85 + Frigg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Frigg scores more
60%
level
17%
Tromsø II scores more
23%

Frigg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
A. Evensen-Jensen
56'
E. Jolle
88'
A. L. Elvebu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Frigg 0–3 Tromsø II

Tromsø II beat Frigg 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 9, 2025.

Goals: A. Evensen-Jensen (33'), E. Jolle (56'), A. L. Elvebu (88').

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.