Trollhättan 1–1 Qviding FIF: Result & Stats

Trollhättan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Qviding FIF

11/20/2021

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 30Edsborgs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Trollhättan53%

×Draw23%

Qviding FIF24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrollhättanExpected goals in this matchQviding FIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.18

Trollhättan

1.85

Qviding FIF

1.18

Trollhättan creates 57% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 45 away

1.87

creates per match

0.98

1.38

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Trollhättan

1.87

Qviding FIF

0.98

allows per match

Trollhättan

1.38

Qviding FIF

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trollhättan+0.00on par

Qviding FIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trollhättan ↓

Qviding FIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Trollhättan or draw

76%

Trollhättan or Qviding FIF

77%

Draw or Qviding FIF

47%

Winning margin

Trollhättan wins by 2+

30%

Qviding FIF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Trollhättan 1+ goals

84%

Trollhättan 2+ goals

55%

Trollhättan 3+ goals

28%

Qviding FIF 1+ goals

69%

Qviding FIF 2+ goals

33%

Qviding FIF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Trollhättan (draw refunded)

69%

Qviding FIF (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trollhättan at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.38 · 114 matches

Qviding FIF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trollhättan attack 1.87 + Qviding FIF defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Qviding FIF attack 0.98 + Trollhättan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Trollhättan scores more

53%

level

23%

Qviding FIF scores more

24%

Trollhättan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trollhättan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff