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Qviding FIF vs Trollhättan — Ettan - Södra 2019

Qviding FIF
Qviding FIF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Trollhättan
Trollhättan
8/15/2022Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 18Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Qviding FIF35%
×Draw25%
Trollhättan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qviding FIF
1.40
Trollhättan
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 112 away

creates per match

Qviding FIF
1.42
Trollhättan
1.39

allows per match

Qviding FIF
1.60
Trollhättan
1.38

finishing

Qviding FIF+0.00on par
Trollhättan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qviding FIF ↓

Trollhättan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Qviding FIF or draw
60%
Qviding FIF or Trollhättan
75%
Draw or Trollhättan
65%

Winning margin

Qviding FIF wins by 2+
16%
Trollhättan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Qviding FIF 1+ goals
75%
Qviding FIF 2+ goals
41%
Qviding FIF 3+ goals
17%
Trollhättan 1+ goals
78%
Trollhättan 2+ goals
44%
Trollhättan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Qviding FIF (draw refunded)
47%
Trollhättan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qviding FIF at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Trollhättan away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qviding FIF attack 1.42 + Trollhättan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Trollhättan attack 1.39 + Qviding FIF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Qviding FIF scores more
35%
level
25%
Trollhättan scores more
40%

Trollhättan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trollhättan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qviding FIF vs Trollhättan

Trollhättan beat Qviding FIF 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on August 15, 2022.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.