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Trollhättan vs Landskrona BoIS — Ettan - Södra 2019

Trollhättan
Trollhättan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
9/22/2019Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 24Edsborgs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Trollhättan36%
×Draw25%
Landskrona BoIS40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trollhättan
1.42
Landskrona BoIS
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 30 away

creates per match

Trollhättan
1.86
Landskrona BoIS
1.63

allows per match

Trollhättan
1.39
Landskrona BoIS
0.97

finishing

Trollhättan+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trollhättan ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Trollhättan or draw
60%
Trollhättan or Landskrona BoIS
75%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
64%

Winning margin

Trollhättan wins by 2+
16%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Trollhättan 1+ goals
76%
Trollhättan 2+ goals
41%
Trollhättan 3+ goals
17%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
78%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
44%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Trollhättan (draw refunded)
47%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trollhättan at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.39 · 113 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trollhättan attack 1.86 + Landskrona BoIS defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.42

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.63 + Trollhättan defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trollhättan scores more
36%
level
25%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
40%

Landskrona BoIS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trollhättan vs Landskrona BoIS

Landskrona BoIS beat Trollhättan 1-0 in Ettan - Södra on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Edsborgs IP in Trollhättan.