Landskrona BoIS 1–0 Trollhättan: Result & Stats

Landskrona BoIS

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trollhättan

S. Almadjed 7'

4/7/2019

Ettan - Södra · Round 1Landskrona Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Landskrona BoIS49%

×Draw26%

Trollhättan26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Landskrona BoISExpected goals in this matchTrollhättan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Landskrona BoIS

1.54

Trollhättan

1.04

Landskrona BoIS creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 111 away

1.73

creates per match

1.41

0.67

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.73

Trollhättan

1.41

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS

0.67

Trollhättan

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Trollhättan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Trollhättan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw

74%

Landskrona BoIS or Trollhättan

74%

Draw or Trollhättan

51%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

25%

Trollhättan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

79%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

45%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

20%

Trollhättan 1+ goals

65%

Trollhättan 2+ goals

28%

Trollhättan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

66%

Trollhättan (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Trollhättan away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.73 + Trollhättan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Trollhättan attack 1.41 + Landskrona BoIS defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more

49%

level

26%

Trollhättan scores more

26%

Landskrona BoIS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Almadjed

65'

I. Arsenijević← S. Almadjed

65'

J. Lundgren← A. Karlsson

70'

J. Ondrejka← K. Jensen

85'

T. Berntsson← M. Knutsen

90+6'

J. Andersson← F. Olsson

Landskrona

Trollhättan

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Magnusson

65'▲I. Arsenijević←▼S. Almadjed

70'▲J. Ondrejka←▼K. Jensen

90+6'▲J. Andersson←▼F. Olsson

Landskrona BoIS substitutes

ArsenijevićOndrejkaAnderssonJönssonSundströmAhlinPetrovic

Manager: W. Lundin

65'▲J. Lundgren←▼A. Karlsson

85'▲T. Berntsson←▼M. Knutsen

Trollhättan substitutes

LundgrenBerntssonHellborgNiklassonJohanssonMleczkoviczClauss

Ettan - Södra: Landskrona BoIS 1–0 Trollhättan

Landskrona BoIS beat Trollhättan 1-0 in Ettan - Södra on April 7, 2019.

Goals: S. Almadjed (7').

The match was played at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Landskrona.

Landskrona BoIS vs Trollhättan — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Landskrona BoIS 1–0 Trollhättan