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Trnje vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Trnje
Trnje
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
F. Dosen 86'
O. Kesse 69'
M. Bibic 50'
F. Lisnic 20' (OG)
D. Solic 71'
5/27/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 29Stadion Trnje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trnje58%
×Draw22%
NK Osijek II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trnje
1.89
NK Osijek II
1.02

Trnje creates 85% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Trnje
1.37
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Trnje
1.38
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Trnje+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trnje ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Trnje or draw
80%
Trnje or NK Osijek II
78%
Draw or NK Osijek II
42%

Winning margin

Trnje wins by 2+
34%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Trnje 1+ goals
85%
Trnje 2+ goals
56%
Trnje 3+ goals
29%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
64%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
27%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trnje (draw refunded)
74%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trnje at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trnje attack 1.37 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.89

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Trnje defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Trnje scores more
58%
level
22%
NK Osijek II scores more
20%

Trnje at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Trnje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. LisnicOwn goal
50'
M. Bibic
69'
O. Kesse
71'
D. Solic
86'
F. Dosen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Trnje 4–1 NK Osijek II

Trnje beat NK Osijek II 4-1 in Second NL on May 27, 2023.

Goals: F. Lisnic (20' o.g.), M. Bibic (50'), O. Kesse (69'), D. Solic (71'), F. Dosen (86').

The match was played at Stadion Trnje in Zagreb.