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NK Osijek II vs Trnje — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Trnje
Trnje
D. Solic 90+1'
N. Omerovic 81' (pen)
T. Polic 13'
A. Maric 90+5'
I. Ribic 29'
11/19/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 14Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II44%
×Draw23%
Trnje33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.75
Trnje
1.50

NK Osijek II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Trnje
1.13

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Trnje
2.03

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Trnje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
67%
NK Osijek II or Trnje
77%
Draw or Trnje
56%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
23%
Trnje wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
83%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
52%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
25%
Trnje 1+ goals
78%
Trnje 2+ goals
44%
Trnje 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
57%
Trnje (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Trnje away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Trnje defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.75

Trnje attack 1.13 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
44%
level
23%
Trnje scores more
33%

NK Osijek II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
T. Polic
29'
I. Ribic
81'
N. OmerovicPenalty
90+1'
D. Solic
90+5'
A. Maric

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: NK Osijek II 3–2 Trnje

NK Osijek II beat Trnje 3-2 in Second NL on November 19, 2022.

Goals: T. Polic (13'), I. Ribic (29'), N. Omerovic (81' pen), D. Solic (90+1'), A. Maric (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.