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Trnje vs Kustosija — Second NL 2022

Trnje
Trnje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kustosija
Kustosija
8/24/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 1Stadion Trnje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Trnje32%
×Draw25%
Kustosija44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trnje
1.31
Kustosija
1.58

Kustosija creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Trnje
1.37
Kustosija
1.78

allows per match

Trnje
1.38
Kustosija
1.24

finishing

Trnje+0.00on par
Kustosija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trnje ↓

Kustosija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Trnje or draw
56%
Trnje or Kustosija
75%
Draw or Kustosija
68%

Winning margin

Trnje wins by 2+
14%
Kustosija wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Trnje 1+ goals
73%
Trnje 2+ goals
38%
Trnje 3+ goals
14%
Kustosija 1+ goals
79%
Kustosija 2+ goals
47%
Kustosija 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Trnje (draw refunded)
42%
Kustosija (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trnje at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

Kustosija away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trnje attack 1.37 + Kustosija defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kustosija attack 1.78 + Trnje defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trnje scores more
32%
level
25%
Kustosija scores more
44%

Kustosija at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Trnje 1–1 Kustosija

Trnje and Kustosija drew 1-1 in Second NL on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trnje in Zagreb.