Kustosija 4–0 Trnje: Result & Stats | Second NL

Kustosija

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trnje

2/21/2025

Second NL · Round 16Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kustosija62%

×Draw21%

Trnje17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KustosijaExpected goals in this matchTrnje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.92

Kustosija

1.98

Trnje

0.92

Kustosija creates 115% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.93

creates per match

1.13

0.71

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Kustosija

1.93

Trnje

1.13

allows per match

Kustosija

0.71

Trnje

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par

Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Trnje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw

83%

Kustosija or Trnje

79%

Draw or Trnje

38%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+

37%

Trnje wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals

86%

Kustosija 2+ goals

59%

Kustosija 3+ goals

31%

Trnje 1+ goals

60%

Trnje 2+ goals

23%

Trnje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)

79%

Trnje (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Trnje away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.93 + Trnje defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.98

Trnje attack 1.13 + Kustosija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kustosija scores more

62%

level

21%

Trnje scores more

17%

Kustosija at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff