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Trnje vs Karlovac 1919 — Second NL 2022

Trnje
Trnje
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
4/26/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 25Stadion Trnje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Trnje34%
×Draw27%
Karlovac 191939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trnje
1.20
Karlovac 1919
1.32

Karlovac 1919 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

creates per match

Trnje
1.37
Karlovac 1919
1.26

allows per match

Trnje
1.38
Karlovac 1919
1.03

finishing

Trnje+0.00on par
Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trnje ↓

Karlovac 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Trnje or draw
61%
Trnje or Karlovac 1919
73%
Draw or Karlovac 1919
66%

Winning margin

Trnje wins by 2+
14%
Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Trnje 1+ goals
70%
Trnje 2+ goals
34%
Trnje 3+ goals
12%
Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
73%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
38%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Trnje (draw refunded)
46%
Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trnje at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trnje attack 1.37 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Trnje defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trnje scores more
34%
level
27%
Karlovac 1919 scores more
39%

Karlovac 1919 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trnje vs Karlovac 1919

Karlovac 1919 beat Trnje 4-0 in Second NL on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Trnje in Zagreb.