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Karlovac 1919 vs Trnje — Second NL 2022

Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trnje
Trnje
10/25/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 10Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Karlovac 191961%
×Draw22%
Trnje17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlovac 1919
1.95
Trnje
0.93

Karlovac 1919 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

creates per match

Karlovac 1919
1.87
Trnje
1.13

allows per match

Karlovac 1919
0.74
Trnje
2.03

finishing

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par
Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovac 1919 ↓

Trnje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Karlovac 1919 or draw
83%
Karlovac 1919 or Trnje
78%
Draw or Trnje
39%

Winning margin

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
37%
Trnje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
86%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
58%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
31%
Trnje 1+ goals
61%
Trnje 2+ goals
24%
Trnje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
78%
Trnje (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovac 1919 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Trnje away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.87 + Trnje defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.95

Trnje attack 1.13 + Karlovac 1919 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Karlovac 1919 scores more
61%
level
22%
Trnje scores more
17%

Karlovac 1919 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlovac 1919 vs Trnje

Karlovac 1919 and Trnje drew 1-1 in Second NL on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.