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Trival Valderas vs SS Reyes II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SS Reyes II
SS Reyes II
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 12Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trival Valderas39%
×Draw27%
SS Reyes II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.29
SS Reyes II
1.17

Trival Valderas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
SS Reyes II
1.35

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
SS Reyes II
1.24

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
SS Reyes II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

SS Reyes II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
66%
Trival Valderas or SS Reyes II
73%
Draw or SS Reyes II
61%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
18%
SS Reyes II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
72%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
37%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
14%
SS Reyes II 1+ goals
69%
SS Reyes II 2+ goals
33%
SS Reyes II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
54%
SS Reyes II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

SS Reyes II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + SS Reyes II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

SS Reyes II attack 1.35 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
39%
level
27%
SS Reyes II scores more
34%

Trival Valderas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trival Valderas 1 – 1 SS Reyes II

Trival Valderas and SS Reyes II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.