Trival Valderas 1–0 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Trival Valderas

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Ana

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Trival Valderas53%

×Draw25%

Santa Ana23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trival ValderasExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

Trival Valderas

1.64

Santa Ana

0.98

Trival Valderas creates 67% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 31 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

0.99

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Trival Valderas

1.33

Santa Ana

0.97

allows per match

Trival Valderas

0.99

Santa Ana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Santa Ana →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw

77%

Trival Valderas or Santa Ana

75%

Draw or Santa Ana

47%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

28%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

81%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

49%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

23%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

62%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

26%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

70%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Trival Valderas scores more

53%

level

25%

Santa Ana scores more

23%

Trival Valderas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff