Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santa Ana vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
CANC
00:00
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana31%
×Draw26%
Trival Valderas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.20
Trival Valderas
1.47

Trival Valderas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 115 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
57%
Santa Ana or Trival Valderas
74%
Draw or Trival Valderas
69%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
13%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
70%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
34%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
12%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
77%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
43%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
42%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santa Ana scores more
31%
level
26%
Trival Valderas scores more
43%

Trival Valderas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Ana face Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 returns with Santa Ana hosting Trival Valderas. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Santa Ana host Trival Valderas at Polideportivo Santa Ana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.