Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trival Valderas vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
12/4/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 12Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trival Valderas28%
×Draw24%
RSC Internacional47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.23
RSC Internacional
1.66

RSC Internacional creates 35% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 15 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
53%
Trival Valderas or RSC Internacional
76%
Draw or RSC Internacional
72%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
12%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
71%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
35%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
13%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
81%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
49%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
37%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
28%
level
24%
RSC Internacional scores more
47%

RSC Internacional at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs RSC Internacional

Trival Valderas beat RSC Internacional 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.