RSC Internacional 5–0 Trival Valderas

RSC Internacional

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Trival Valderas

4/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional63%

×Draw21%

Trival Valderas15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSC InternacionalExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.82

RSC Internacional

1.92

Trival Valderas

0.82

RSC Internacional creates 134% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 115 away

2.53

creates per match

0.97

0.67

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

RSC Internacional

2.53

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

RSC Internacional

0.67

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw

85%

RSC Internacional or Trival Valderas

79%

Draw or Trival Valderas

37%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

38%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

85%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

57%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

30%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

56%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

20%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

80%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.92

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

RSC Internacional scores more

63%

level

21%

Trival Valderas scores more

15%

RSC Internacional at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSC Internacional vs Trival Valderas

RSC Internacional beat Trival Valderas 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5 in Madrid.

RSC Internacional vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: RSC Internacional vs Trival Valderas