Trival Valderas 1–2 Real Madrid III: Result & Stats

Trival Valderas

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid III

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 19Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trival Valderas32%

×Draw29%

Real Madrid III39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trival ValderasExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

Trival Valderas

1.04

Real Madrid III

1.17

Real Madrid III creates 13% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

1.35

0.99

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Trival Valderas

1.33

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Trival Valderas

0.99

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw

61%

Trival Valderas or Real Madrid III

71%

Draw or Real Madrid III

68%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

12%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

65%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

28%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

69%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

33%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

45%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trival Valderas scores more

32%

level

29%

Real Madrid III scores more

39%

Real Madrid III at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Real Madrid III

Real Madrid III beat Trival Valderas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.

Trival Valderas vs Real Madrid III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Real Madrid III