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Real Madrid III vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III65%
×Draw22%
Trival Valderas13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid III
1.79
Trival Valderas
0.63

Real Madrid III creates 184% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

creates per match

Real Madrid III
2.29
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Real Madrid III
0.29
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw
87%
Real Madrid III or Trival Valderas
78%
Draw or Trival Valderas
35%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+
38%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals
83%
Real Madrid III 2+ goals
53%
Real Madrid III 3+ goals
26%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
47%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
13%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)
84%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Madrid III scores more
65%
level
22%
Trival Valderas scores more
13%

Real Madrid III at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid III vs Trival Valderas

Real Madrid III beat Trival Valderas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6 in Madrid.