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Trival Valderas vs Racing Madrid — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Racing Madrid
Racing Madrid
3/29/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trival Valderas57%
×Draw23%
Racing Madrid20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.76
Racing Madrid
0.94

Trival Valderas creates 87% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
Racing Madrid
0.88

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
Racing Madrid
2.18

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
Racing Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Racing Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
80%
Trival Valderas or Racing Madrid
77%
Draw or Racing Madrid
43%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
32%
Racing Madrid wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
83%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
52%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
26%
Racing Madrid 1+ goals
61%
Racing Madrid 2+ goals
24%
Racing Madrid 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
74%
Racing Madrid (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Racing Madrid away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Racing Madrid defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Racing Madrid attack 0.88 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
57%
level
23%
Racing Madrid scores more
20%

Trival Valderas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Racing Madrid

Trival Valderas beat Racing Madrid 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.