Racing Madrid 0–3 Trival Valderas: Result & Stats

Racing Madrid

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Trival Valderas

11/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing Madrid26%

×Draw25%

Trival Valderas49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing MadridExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.63

Racing Madrid

1.12

Trival Valderas

1.63

Trival Valderas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

0.94

creates per match

0.97

2.29

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Racing Madrid

0.94

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

Racing Madrid

2.29

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Madrid+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Madrid ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Racing Madrid or draw

51%

Racing Madrid or Trival Valderas

75%

Draw or Trival Valderas

74%

Winning margin

Racing Madrid wins by 2+

10%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Racing Madrid 1+ goals

67%

Racing Madrid 2+ goals

31%

Racing Madrid 3+ goals

10%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

80%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

48%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Racing Madrid (draw refunded)

35%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Madrid at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Madrid attack 0.94 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Racing Madrid defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Racing Madrid scores more

26%

level

25%

Trival Valderas scores more

49%

Trival Valderas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff