Trival Valderas 1–0 Navalcarnero: Result & Stats

Trival Valderas

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Navalcarnero

Javi Jiménez 50'

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trival Valderas32%

×Draw29%

Navalcarnero39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trival ValderasExpected goals in this matchNavalcarnero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.15

Trival Valderas

1.01

Navalcarnero

1.15

Navalcarnero creates 14% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

1.31

0.99

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Trival Valderas

1.33

Navalcarnero

1.31

allows per match

Trival Valderas

0.99

Navalcarnero

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Navalcarnero →

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw

61%

Trival Valderas or Navalcarnero

71%

Draw or Navalcarnero

68%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

12%

Navalcarnero wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

64%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

27%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals

68%

Navalcarnero 2+ goals

32%

Navalcarnero 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

45%

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Navalcarnero away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Navalcarnero defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.01

Navalcarnero attack 1.31 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trival Valderas scores more

32%

level

29%

Navalcarnero scores more

39%

Navalcarnero at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Javi Jiménez

56'

Dani Durán← Esparza

64'

Jorge Borona← Dani Rodríguez

73'

Diego Campos← David Rodríguez

85'

Héctor Maqueda← A. Arkine

86'

Manuel Tello← Victor Calarge

89'

Igor Manrique← Javi Jiménez

Trival

Navalcarnero

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Galan

56'▲Dani Durán←▼Esparza

85'▲Héctor Maqueda←▼A. Arkine

89'▲Igor Manrique←▼Javi Jiménez

Trival Valderas substitutes

DuránMaquedaManrique

Manager: Luis Ayllón

64'▲Jorge Borona←▼Dani Rodríguez

73'▲Diego Campos←▼David Rodríguez

86'▲Manuel Tello←▼Victor Calarge

Navalcarnero substitutes

BoronaCamposTello

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Trival Valderas 1–0 Navalcarnero

Trival Valderas beat Navalcarnero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 19, 2020.

Goals: Javi Jiménez (50').

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.

Trival Valderas vs Navalcarnero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Trival Valderas 1–0 Navalcarnero