Navalcarnero 2–0 Trival Valderas: Result & Stats

Navalcarnero

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trival Valderas

Jorge Borona 48'

Juan Esnáider 44'

9/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navalcarnero52%

×Draw26%

Trival Valderas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavalcarneroExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.92

Navalcarnero

1.55

Trival Valderas

0.92

Navalcarnero creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 115 away

1.80

creates per match

0.97

0.87

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Navalcarnero

1.80

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

Navalcarnero

0.87

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw

78%

Navalcarnero or Trival Valderas

74%

Draw or Trival Valderas

48%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+

27%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals

79%

Navalcarnero 2+ goals

46%

Navalcarnero 3+ goals

20%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

60%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

23%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)

70%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 1.80 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.55

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Navalcarnero defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Navalcarnero scores more

52%

level

26%

Trival Valderas scores more

22%

Navalcarnero at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Juan Esnáider

48'

Jorge Borona

52'

Roberto García← Raúl Corrales

54'

Iván Lean← Mario Duque

56'

Rubén Sánchez← Juan Esnáider

69'

Juan Díaz← Dani Rodríguez

77'

Juanjo Del Pozo← Dani

82'

Rodrigo← Jorge Borona

Navalcarnero

Trival

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Borona

López

▼

Rodríguez

⚽

▼

Esnáider

Miguel

Manager: Luis Ayllón

56'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼Juan Esnáider

69'▲Juan Díaz←▼Dani Rodríguez

82'▲Rodrigo←▼Jorge Borona

Navalcarnero substitutes

SánchezDíazRodrigo

Manager: David Galan

52'▲Roberto García←▼Raúl Corrales

54'▲Iván Lean←▼Mario Duque

77'▲Juanjo Del Pozo←▼Dani

Trival Valderas substitutes

GarcíaLeanPozo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Navalcarnero 2–0 Trival Valderas

Navalcarnero beat Trival Valderas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 1, 2019.

Goals: Juan Esnáider (44'), Jorge Borona (48').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Mariano González in Navalcarnero.

Navalcarnero vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Navalcarnero 2–0 Trival Valderas