Trival Valderas 1–1 Móstoles CF: Result & Stats

Trival Valderas

1 – 1

Móstoles CF

3/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Trival Valderas46%

×Draw28%

Móstoles CF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trival ValderasExpected goals in this matchMóstoles CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.90

Trival Valderas

1.29

Móstoles CF

0.90

Trival Valderas creates 43% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 16 away

1.33

creates per match

0.81

0.99

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Trival Valderas

1.33

Móstoles CF

0.81

allows per match

Trival Valderas

0.99

Móstoles CF

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Móstoles CF →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw

74%

Trival Valderas or Móstoles CF

72%

Draw or Móstoles CF

54%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

21%

Móstoles CF wins by 2+

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

72%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

37%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

14%

Móstoles CF 1+ goals

59%

Móstoles CF 2+ goals

23%

Móstoles CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

64%

Móstoles CF (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Trival Valderas scores more

46%

level

28%

Móstoles CF scores more

26%

Trival Valderas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Móstoles CF

Trival Valderas and Móstoles CF drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.

Trival Valderas vs Móstoles CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Móstoles CF