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Móstoles CF vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Móstoles CF31%
×Draw29%
Trival Valderas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles CF
0.99
Trival Valderas
1.17

Trival Valderas creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 115 away

creates per match

Móstoles CF
0.69
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Móstoles CF
1.38
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Móstoles CF+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles CF ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Móstoles CF or draw
60%
Móstoles CF or Trival Valderas
71%
Draw or Trival Valderas
69%

Winning margin

Móstoles CF wins by 2+
11%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Móstoles CF 1+ goals
63%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
26%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
8%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
69%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
33%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
44%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles CF at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles CF attack 0.69 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Móstoles CF defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Móstoles CF scores more
31%
level
29%
Trival Valderas scores more
40%

Trival Valderas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Móstoles CF 0 – 0 Trival Valderas

Móstoles CF and Trival Valderas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.