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Trival Valderas vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Flat Earth
Flat Earth
5/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Trival Valderas45%
×Draw29%
Flat Earth27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.27
Flat Earth
0.91

Trival Valderas creates 40% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 28 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
Flat Earth
0.82

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
Flat Earth
1.21

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Flat Earth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
73%
Trival Valderas or Flat Earth
71%
Draw or Flat Earth
55%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
20%
Flat Earth wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
72%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
36%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
14%
Flat Earth 1+ goals
60%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
23%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
63%
Flat Earth (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
45%
level
29%
Flat Earth scores more
27%

Trival Valderas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trival Valderas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Trival Valderas 3–0 Flat Earth

Trival Valderas beat Flat Earth 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.