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Flat Earth vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Flat Earth
Flat Earth
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 1Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flat Earth44%
×Draw29%
Trival Valderas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flat Earth
1.27
Trival Valderas
0.93

Flat Earth creates 37% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 115 away

creates per match

Flat Earth
1.25
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Flat Earth
0.89
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw
73%
Flat Earth or Trival Valderas
71%
Draw or Trival Valderas
56%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+
20%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals
72%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
36%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
14%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
61%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
24%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)
62%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Flat Earth scores more
44%
level
29%
Trival Valderas scores more
27%

Flat Earth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Flat Earth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Flat Earth 0–0 Trival Valderas

Flat Earth and Trival Valderas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna in Madrid.