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Trival Valderas vs Atlético Madrid II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
1/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Trival Valderas28%
×Draw28%
Atlético Madrid II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
0.97
Atlético Madrid II
1.29

Atlético Madrid II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 20 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
Atlético Madrid II
1.60

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
Atlético Madrid II
0.60

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
56%
Trival Valderas or Atlético Madrid II
72%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
72%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
62%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
25%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
39%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
28%
level
28%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
44%

Atlético Madrid II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trival Valderas vs Atlético Madrid II

Trival Valderas and Atlético Madrid II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Canaleja in Alcorcón.