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Atlético Madrid II vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
9/15/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Atlético Madrid II62%
×Draw22%
Trival Valderas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.90
Trival Valderas
0.83

Atlético Madrid II creates 129% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 115 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
2.50
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.70
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
84%
Atlético Madrid II or Trival Valderas
78%
Draw or Trival Valderas
38%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
37%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
56%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
29%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
56%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
20%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
80%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.50 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
62%
level
22%
Trival Valderas scores more
16%

Atlético Madrid II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Trival Valderas

Atlético Madrid II beat Trival Valderas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.