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Tristan Suarez vs Racing Cordoba — Primera Nacional 2026

Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
9/27/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 33Estadio 20 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Tristan Suarez47%
×Draw27%
Racing Cordoba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tristan Suarez
1.39
Racing Cordoba
0.95

Tristan Suarez creates 46% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 65 away

creates per match

Tristan Suarez
1.29
Racing Cordoba
0.85

allows per match

Tristan Suarez
1.05
Racing Cordoba
1.49

finishing

Tristan Suarez+0.00on par
Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tristan Suarez ↓

Racing Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tristan Suarez or draw
74%
Tristan Suarez or Racing Cordoba
73%
Draw or Racing Cordoba
53%

Winning margin

Tristan Suarez wins by 2+
23%
Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tristan Suarez 1+ goals
75%
Tristan Suarez 2+ goals
40%
Tristan Suarez 3+ goals
16%
Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
61%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
25%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)
65%
Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tristan Suarez at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 100 matches

Racing Cordoba away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tristan Suarez attack 1.29 + Racing Cordoba defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Racing Cordoba attack 0.85 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tristan Suarez scores more
47%
level
27%
Racing Cordoba scores more
26%

Tristan Suarez at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tristan Suarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Tristan Suarez 4–1 Racing Cordoba

Tristan Suarez beat Racing Cordoba 4-1 in Primera Nacional on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio 20 de Octubre in Tristan Suarez.