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Racing Cordoba vs Tristan Suarez — Primera Nacional 2026

Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez
5/25/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 16Estadio Miguel Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Racing Cordoba46%
×Draw29%
Tristan Suarez25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Cordoba
1.27
Tristan Suarez
0.84

Racing Cordoba creates 51% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 99 away

creates per match

Racing Cordoba
1.35
Tristan Suarez
0.85

allows per match

Racing Cordoba
0.84
Tristan Suarez
1.19

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par
Tristan Suarez+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Tristan Suarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw
75%
Racing Cordoba or Tristan Suarez
71%
Draw or Tristan Suarez
54%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
21%
Tristan Suarez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
72%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
36%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
14%
Tristan Suarez 1+ goals
57%
Tristan Suarez 2+ goals
21%
Tristan Suarez 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
65%
Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

Tristan Suarez away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.35 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tristan Suarez attack 0.85 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more
46%
level
29%
Tristan Suarez scores more
25%

Racing Cordoba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Racing Cordoba 1–1 Tristan Suarez

Racing Cordoba and Tristan Suarez drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Sancho in Cordoba.