Tristan Suarez 0–0 Fénix: Result & Stats

Tristan Suarez

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fénix

3/23/2019

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 30Estadio 20 de Octubre (Ezeiza, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tristan Suarez67%

×Draw27%

Fénix6%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tristan SuarezExpected goals in this matchFénix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.24

Tristan Suarez

1.39

Fénix

0.24

Tristan Suarez creates 479% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

0.48

0.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Tristan Suarez

1.00

Fénix

0.48

allows per match

Tristan Suarez

0.00

Fénix

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tristan Suarez+0.00on par

Fénix+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No84
Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tristan Suarez ↓

Fénix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–027%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (27%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Tristan Suarez or draw

94%

Tristan Suarez or Fénix

73%

Draw or Fénix

33%

Winning margin

Tristan Suarez wins by 2+

35%

Fénix wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Tristan Suarez 1+ goals

75%

Tristan Suarez 2+ goals

40%

Tristan Suarez 3+ goals

16%

Fénix 1+ goals

21%

Fénix 2+ goals

2%

Fénix 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)

92%

Fénix (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

9%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tristan Suarez at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Fénix away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tristan Suarez attack 1.00 + Fénix defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fénix attack 0.48 + Tristan Suarez defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tristan Suarez scores more

67%

level

27%

Fénix scores more

6%

Tristan Suarez at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tristan Suarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

G. Martínez← N. Abregú

69'

C. Galeano← E. Arreguín

77'

J. Vizcarra← N. Witozsynski

Tristan

Fénix

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Wensel

61'▲G. Martínez←▼N. Abregú

69'▲C. Galeano←▼E. Arreguín

77'▲J. Vizcarra←▼N. Witozsynski

Tristan Suarez substitutes

MartínezGaleanoVizcarra

Manager: A. Czornomaz

Match Recap: Tristan Suarez vs Fénix

Tristan Suarez and Fénix drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio 20 de Octubre (Ezeiza, Provincia de Buenos Aires).

Tristan Suarez vs Fénix — Primera B Metropolitana 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tristan Suarez vs Fénix