Fénix 0–1 Tristan Suarez: Result & Stats

Fénix

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tristan Suarez

B. Miranda 39'

2/10/2020

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 3Estadio José Manuel Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fénix23%

×Draw29%

Tristan Suarez48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FénixExpected goals in this matchTristan Suarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.31

Fénix

0.82

Tristan Suarez

1.31

Tristan Suarez creates 60% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

0.65

creates per match

1.33

1.30

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fénix

0.65

Tristan Suarez

1.33

allows per match

Fénix

1.30

Tristan Suarez

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fénix+0.00on par

Tristan Suarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fénix ↓

Tristan Suarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fénix or draw

52%

Fénix or Tristan Suarez

71%

Draw or Tristan Suarez

77%

Winning margin

Fénix wins by 2+

7%

Tristan Suarez wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Fénix 1+ goals

56%

Fénix 2+ goals

20%

Fénix 3+ goals

5%

Tristan Suarez 1+ goals

73%

Tristan Suarez 2+ goals

38%

Tristan Suarez 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fénix (draw refunded)

33%

Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fénix at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Tristan Suarez away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fénix attack 0.65 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Tristan Suarez attack 1.33 + Fénix defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fénix scores more

23%

level

29%

Tristan Suarez scores more

48%

Tristan Suarez at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tristan Suarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

B. Miranda

66'

S. Camacho← L. Arellano

66'

K. Cardozo← M. Ramírez

72'

E. Arreguín← F. Giménez

75'

I. Leszczuk← E. Gianunzio

79'

F. Quiroz← F. Guerra

87'

C. Galeano← B. Miranda

Fénix

Tristan

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Castro

66'▲S. Camacho←▼L. Arellano

66'▲K. Cardozo←▼M. Ramírez

75'▲I. Leszczuk←▼E. Gianunzio

Fénix substitutes

CamachoCardozoLeszczuk

Manager: A. Biggeri

72'▲E. Arreguín←▼F. Giménez

79'▲F. Quiroz←▼F. Guerra

87'▲C. Galeano←▼B. Miranda

Tristan Suarez substitutes

ArreguínQuirozGaleano