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Tristan Suarez vs Alvarado — Primera Nacional 2026

Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Alvarado
Alvarado
3/5/2022Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 4Estadio 20 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Tristan Suarez47%
×Draw28%
Alvarado25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tristan Suarez
1.35
Alvarado
0.90

Tristan Suarez creates 50% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

creates per match

Tristan Suarez
1.29
Alvarado
0.75

allows per match

Tristan Suarez
1.05
Alvarado
1.41

finishing

Tristan Suarez+0.00on par
Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tristan Suarez ↓

Alvarado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tristan Suarez or draw
75%
Tristan Suarez or Alvarado
72%
Draw or Alvarado
53%

Winning margin

Tristan Suarez wins by 2+
22%
Alvarado wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tristan Suarez 1+ goals
74%
Tristan Suarez 2+ goals
39%
Tristan Suarez 3+ goals
15%
Alvarado 1+ goals
59%
Alvarado 2+ goals
23%
Alvarado 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)
65%
Alvarado (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tristan Suarez at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 100 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tristan Suarez attack 1.29 + Alvarado defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Alvarado attack 0.75 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tristan Suarez scores more
47%
level
28%
Alvarado scores more
25%

Tristan Suarez at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tristan Suarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Tristan Suarez 3–3 Alvarado

Tristan Suarez and Alvarado drew 3-3 in Primera Nacional on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio 20 de Octubre in Ezeiza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.