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Alvarado vs Tristan Suarez — Primera Nacional 2026

Alvarado
Alvarado
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez
7/20/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 24Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Alvarado43%
×Draw31%
Tristan Suarez27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alvarado
1.13
Tristan Suarez
0.83

Alvarado creates 36% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 99 away

creates per match

Alvarado
1.06
Tristan Suarez
0.85

allows per match

Alvarado
0.81
Tristan Suarez
1.19

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par
Tristan Suarez+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Tristan Suarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw
73%
Alvarado or Tristan Suarez
69%
Draw or Tristan Suarez
57%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+
18%
Tristan Suarez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals
68%
Alvarado 2+ goals
31%
Alvarado 3+ goals
11%
Tristan Suarez 1+ goals
56%
Tristan Suarez 2+ goals
20%
Tristan Suarez 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)
61%
Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 103 matches

Tristan Suarez away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.06 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tristan Suarez attack 0.85 + Alvarado defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alvarado scores more
43%
level
31%
Tristan Suarez scores more
27%

Alvarado at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alvarado vs Tristan Suarez

Tristan Suarez beat Alvarado 2-1 in Primera Nacional on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.