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Tripoli SC vs Bourj — Premier League 2019

Tripoli SC
Tripoli SC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bourj
Bourj
12/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Tripoli Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tripoli SC30%
×Draw30%
Bourj40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tripoli SC
0.96
Bourj
1.16

Bourj creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 57 away

creates per match

Tripoli SC
0.85
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Tripoli SC
1.29
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Tripoli SC+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tripoli SC ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tripoli SC or draw
60%
Tripoli SC or Bourj
70%
Draw or Bourj
70%

Winning margin

Tripoli SC wins by 2+
11%
Bourj wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tripoli SC 1+ goals
62%
Tripoli SC 2+ goals
25%
Tripoli SC 3+ goals
7%
Bourj 1+ goals
69%
Bourj 2+ goals
32%
Bourj 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)
43%
Bourj (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tripoli SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tripoli SC attack 0.85 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bourj attack 1.02 + Tripoli SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tripoli SC scores more
30%
level
30%
Bourj scores more
40%

Bourj at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tripoli SC 0–2 Bourj

Bourj beat Tripoli SC 2-0 in Premier League on December 28, 2021.

The match was played at Tripoli Municipal Stadium in Tarabulus.