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Bourj vs Tripoli SC — Premier League 2019

Bourj
Bourj
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tripoli SC
Tripoli SC
9/9/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bourj37%
×Draw29%
Tripoli SC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bourj
1.13
Tripoli SC
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bourj
1.13
Tripoli SC
0.92

allows per match

Bourj
1.23
Tripoli SC
1.14

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par
Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Tripoli SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bourj or draw
66%
Bourj or Tripoli SC
71%
Draw or Tripoli SC
63%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+
15%
Tripoli SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals
68%
Bourj 2+ goals
31%
Bourj 3+ goals
11%
Tripoli SC 1+ goals
66%
Tripoli SC 2+ goals
29%
Tripoli SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)
52%
Tripoli SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Tripoli SC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Tripoli SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tripoli SC attack 0.92 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bourj scores more
37%
level
29%
Tripoli SC scores more
34%

Bourj at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bourj 4–1 Tripoli SC

Bourj beat Tripoli SC 4-1 in Premier League on September 9, 2022.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.