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Trinidad and Tobago vs Jamaica — Friendlies 2026

Trinidad and Tobago
Trinidad and Tobago
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jamaica
Jamaica
3/3/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Larry Gomes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Trinidad and Tobago59%
×Draw22%
Jamaica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trinidad and Tobago
1.90
Jamaica
0.95

Trinidad and Tobago creates 100% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

Trinidad and Tobago
2.50
Jamaica
1.25

allows per match

Trinidad and Tobago
0.64
Jamaica
1.30

finishing

Trinidad and Tobago+0.00on par
Jamaica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trinidad and Tobago ↓

Jamaica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trinidad and Tobago or draw
82%
Trinidad and Tobago or Jamaica
78%
Draw or Jamaica
41%

Winning margin

Trinidad and Tobago wins by 2+
35%
Jamaica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Trinidad and Tobago 1+ goals
85%
Trinidad and Tobago 2+ goals
56%
Trinidad and Tobago 3+ goals
29%
Jamaica 1+ goals
61%
Jamaica 2+ goals
25%
Jamaica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Trinidad and Tobago (draw refunded)
76%
Jamaica (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trinidad and Tobago at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Jamaica away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trinidad and Tobago attack 2.50 + Jamaica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Jamaica attack 1.25 + Trinidad and Tobago defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Trinidad and Tobago scores more
59%
level
22%
Jamaica scores more
18%

Trinidad and Tobago at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Trinidad and Tobago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Trinidad and Tobago 0–0 Jamaica

Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Larry Gomes Stadium in Malabar, Arima.