Jamaica 3–2 Trinidad and Tobago: Result & Stats

Jamaica

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Trinidad and Tobago

5/27/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jamaica63%

×Draw24%

Trinidad and Tobago14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JamaicaExpected goals in this matchTrinidad and Tobago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.64

Jamaica

1.69

Trinidad and Tobago

0.64

Jamaica creates 164% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

1.09

creates per match

0.28

1.00

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Jamaica

1.09

Trinidad and Tobago

0.28

allows per match

Jamaica

1.00

Trinidad and Tobago

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jamaica+0.00on par

Trinidad and Tobago+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamaica ↓

Trinidad and Tobago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jamaica or draw

86%

Jamaica or Trinidad and Tobago

76%

Draw or Trinidad and Tobago

37%

Winning margin

Jamaica wins by 2+

36%

Trinidad and Tobago wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jamaica 1+ goals

82%

Jamaica 2+ goals

50%

Jamaica 3+ goals

24%

Trinidad and Tobago 1+ goals

47%

Trinidad and Tobago 2+ goals

14%

Trinidad and Tobago 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Jamaica (draw refunded)

82%

Trinidad and Tobago (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamaica at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Trinidad and Tobago away — creates 0.28, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamaica attack 1.09 + Trinidad and Tobago defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.69

Trinidad and Tobago attack 0.28 + Jamaica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jamaica scores more

63%

level

24%

Trinidad and Tobago scores more

14%

Jamaica at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jamaica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff