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Třinec vs Baník Ostrava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Třinec
Třinec
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
6/8/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 31Stadion Rudolfa Labaje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Třinec50%
×Draw22%
Baník Ostrava II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Třinec
1.90
Baník Ostrava II
1.37

Třinec creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 65 away

creates per match

Třinec
2.66
Baník Ostrava II
2.08

allows per match

Třinec
0.66
Baník Ostrava II
1.14

finishing

Třinec+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec ↓

Baník Ostrava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Třinec or draw
72%
Třinec or Baník Ostrava II
78%
Draw or Baník Ostrava II
50%

Winning margin

Třinec wins by 2+
28%
Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Třinec 1+ goals
85%
Třinec 2+ goals
56%
Třinec 3+ goals
29%
Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
75%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
40%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Třinec (draw refunded)
64%
Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.66 · 38 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec attack 2.66 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.90

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Třinec defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Třinec scores more
50%
level
22%
Baník Ostrava II scores more
28%

Třinec at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Třinec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Třinec vs Baník Ostrava II

Baník Ostrava II beat Třinec 3-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rudolfa Labaje in Třinec.