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Baník Ostrava II vs Třinec — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Třinec
Třinec
11/5/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 14Bazaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baník Ostrava II47%
×Draw23%
Třinec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava II
1.79
Třinec
1.38

Baník Ostrava II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 38 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II
2.25
Třinec
1.66

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II
1.09
Třinec
1.34

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par
Třinec+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Třinec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw
70%
Baník Ostrava II or Třinec
77%
Draw or Třinec
53%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
26%
Třinec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
83%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
53%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
26%
Třinec 1+ goals
75%
Třinec 2+ goals
40%
Třinec 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
61%
Třinec (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Třinec away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Třinec defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.79

Třinec attack 1.66 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more
47%
level
23%
Třinec scores more
30%

Baník Ostrava II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava II vs Třinec

Baník Ostrava II beat Třinec 5-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Bazaly in Slezská Ostrava.