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Třinec II vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Třinec II
Třinec II
CANC
15:00
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
6/6/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 23Borek Fotbalove Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Třinec II47%
×Draw21%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Třinec II
2.16
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.75

Třinec II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 45 away

creates per match

Třinec II
1.60
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
0.89

allows per match

Třinec II
2.60
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.71

finishing

Třinec II+0.00on par
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec II ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Třinec II or draw
68%
Třinec II or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
79%
Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
53%

Winning margin

Třinec II wins by 2+
28%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Třinec II 1+ goals
88%
Třinec II 2+ goals
63%
Třinec II 3+ goals
36%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
83%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
52%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Třinec II (draw refunded)
60%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec II attack 1.60 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.16

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Třinec II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Třinec II scores more
47%
level
21%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
32%

Třinec II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Třinec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Třinec II face Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F returns with Třinec II hosting Slavoj Olympia Bruntál. Match starts June 6, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Třinec II host Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at Borek Fotbalove Hřiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.