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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Třinec II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
FT
3 – 2
Třinec II
Třinec II
10/11/20204. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 10Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál33%
×Draw20%
Třinec II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.93
Třinec II
2.34

Třinec II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 4 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Třinec II
2.50

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Třinec II
2.50

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Třinec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
53%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Třinec II
80%
Draw or Třinec II
67%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
17%
Třinec II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
85%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
57%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
30%
Třinec II 1+ goals
90%
Třinec II 2+ goals
67%
Třinec II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
41%
Třinec II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
33%
level
20%
Třinec II scores more
47%

Třinec II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Třinec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Třinec II

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál beat Třinec II 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál in Bruntál.