Třinec II 1–3 Polanka nad Odrou: Result & Stats

Třinec II

FT

1 – 3

Polanka nad Odrou

8/9/2020

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 1Borek Fotbalove Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Třinec II24%

×Draw21%

Polanka nad Odrou56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Třinec IIExpected goals in this matchPolanka nad Odrou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.19

Třinec II

1.38

Polanka nad Odrou

2.19

Polanka nad Odrou creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 63 away

1.60

creates per match

1.78

2.60

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Třinec II

1.60

Polanka nad Odrou

1.78

allows per match

Třinec II

2.60

Polanka nad Odrou

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Třinec II+0.00on par

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec II ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Třinec II or draw

44%

Třinec II or Polanka nad Odrou

79%

Draw or Polanka nad Odrou

76%

Winning margin

Třinec II wins by 2+

10%

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Třinec II 1+ goals

75%

Třinec II 2+ goals

40%

Třinec II 3+ goals

16%

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals

89%

Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals

64%

Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Třinec II (draw refunded)

30%

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec II attack 1.60 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Třinec II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Třinec II scores more

24%

level

21%

Polanka nad Odrou scores more

56%

Polanka nad Odrou at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff