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Polanka nad Odrou vs Třinec II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
CANC
13:30
Třinec II
Třinec II
4/4/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 14Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou47%
×Draw21%
Třinec II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polanka nad Odrou
2.14
Třinec II
1.74

Polanka nad Odrou creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 4 away

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou
1.78
Třinec II
2.50

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou
0.98
Třinec II
2.50

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par
Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Třinec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw
68%
Polanka nad Odrou or Třinec II
79%
Draw or Třinec II
53%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
27%
Třinec II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
88%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
63%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
36%
Třinec II 1+ goals
82%
Třinec II 2+ goals
52%
Třinec II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
60%
Třinec II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.14

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more
47%
level
21%
Třinec II scores more
32%

Polanka nad Odrou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Polanka nad Odrou host Třinec II

April 4, 2021: Polanka nad Odrou take on Třinec II in 4. liga - Divizie F. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Polanka nad Odrou host Třinec II at Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.