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Třinec II vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Třinec II
Třinec II
CANC
09:30
Opava II
Opava II
3/28/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 13Borek Fotbalove Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Třinec II30%
×Draw21%
Opava II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Třinec II
1.60
Opava II
2.06

Opava II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 74 away

creates per match

Třinec II
1.60
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Třinec II
2.60
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Třinec II+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec II ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Třinec II or draw
52%
Třinec II or Opava II
79%
Draw or Opava II
70%

Winning margin

Třinec II wins by 2+
14%
Opava II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Třinec II 1+ goals
80%
Třinec II 2+ goals
47%
Třinec II 3+ goals
22%
Opava II 1+ goals
87%
Opava II 2+ goals
61%
Opava II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Třinec II (draw refunded)
39%
Opava II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec II attack 1.60 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Opava II attack 1.51 + Třinec II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Třinec II scores more
30%
level
21%
Opava II scores more
48%

Opava II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Třinec II vs Opava II — Match Preview

Třinec II face Opava II on March 28, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Třinec II host Opava II at Borek Fotbalove Hřiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.