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Opava II vs Třinec II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Opava II
Opava II
CANC
15:30
Třinec II
Třinec II
6/27/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Opava II52%
×Draw19%
Třinec II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava II
2.58
Třinec II
1.94

Opava II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 4 away

creates per match

Opava II
2.67
Třinec II
2.50

allows per match

Opava II
1.38
Třinec II
2.50

finishing

Opava II+0.00on par
Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava II ↓

Třinec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Opava II or draw
71%
Opava II or Třinec II
81%
Draw or Třinec II
48%

Winning margin

Opava II wins by 2+
32%
Třinec II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Opava II 1+ goals
92%
Opava II 2+ goals
72%
Opava II 3+ goals
47%
Třinec II 1+ goals
86%
Třinec II 2+ goals
58%
Třinec II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Opava II (draw refunded)
64%
Třinec II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.38 · 76 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava II attack 2.67 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Opava II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Opava II scores more
52%
level
19%
Třinec II scores more
29%

Opava II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Opava II vs Třinec II — Match Preview

Opava II face Třinec II on June 27, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Opava II host Třinec II at Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.