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Třinec II vs Frýdlant — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Třinec II
Třinec II
CANC
14:00
Frýdlant
Frýdlant
4/25/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 17Borek Fotbalove Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Třinec II33%
×Draw21%
Frýdlant46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Třinec II
1.82
Frýdlant
2.15

Frýdlant creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 49 away

creates per match

Třinec II
1.60
Frýdlant
1.69

allows per match

Třinec II
2.60
Frýdlant
2.04

finishing

Třinec II+0.00on par
Frýdlant+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Třinec II ↓

Frýdlant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Třinec II or draw
54%
Třinec II or Frýdlant
79%
Draw or Frýdlant
67%

Winning margin

Třinec II wins by 2+
17%
Frýdlant wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Třinec II 1+ goals
84%
Třinec II 2+ goals
54%
Třinec II 3+ goals
27%
Frýdlant 1+ goals
88%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
63%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Třinec II (draw refunded)
42%
Frýdlant (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Třinec II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Frýdlant away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Třinec II attack 1.60 + Frýdlant defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.82

Frýdlant attack 1.69 + Třinec II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Třinec II scores more
33%
level
21%
Frýdlant scores more
46%

Frýdlant at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frýdlant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Třinec II vs Frýdlant — Match Preview

Třinec II face Frýdlant on April 25, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Třinec II host Frýdlant at Borek Fotbalove Hřiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.