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Frýdlant vs Třinec II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Frýdlant
Frýdlant
FT
3 – 3
Třinec II
Třinec II
8/29/20204. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 4Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Frýdlant47%
×Draw20%
Třinec II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdlant
2.24
Třinec II
1.85

Frýdlant creates 21% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 4 away

creates per match

Frýdlant
1.98
Třinec II
2.50

allows per match

Frýdlant
1.21
Třinec II
2.50

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par
Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Třinec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw
67%
Frýdlant or Třinec II
80%
Draw or Třinec II
53%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+
28%
Třinec II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals
89%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
65%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
38%
Třinec II 1+ goals
84%
Třinec II 2+ goals
55%
Třinec II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)
59%
Třinec II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.98 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.24

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Frýdlant defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Frýdlant scores more
47%
level
20%
Třinec II scores more
33%

Frýdlant at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Frýdlant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frýdlant vs Třinec II

Frýdlant and Třinec II drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant in Frýdlant nad Ostravicí.